小城镇发展与财政建设非良性互动问题研究

小城镇发展与财政建设是一种动态的、相互作用、相互制约的循环关系。目前我国东西部不发达地区普遍存在着小城镇财权与事权不对称、财政性资金管理混乱、财政收支结构不合理、财政负债严重等影响小城镇发展的典型问题,从根本上抑制着小城镇财政建设和可持续发展之间的良性互动作用的充分发挥。文章从小城镇经济发展水平、财政管理体制和行政管理体制三方面深入分析原因,指出小城镇发展与财政建设非良性互动的症结之所在,提出促进小城镇发展与财政建设良性互动的改革方案。     

Kumulation von Mikrodaten – Konzeptionelle Grundlagen und ein Vorschlag zur Realisierung

Zusammenfassung: In dieser Studie wird ein Konzept zur Kumulation von laufenden Haushaltsbudgetbefragungen im Rahmen des Projektes Amtliche Statistik und sozioökonomische Fragestellungen entwickelt und zur Diskussion gestellt. Dafür werden die theoretischen Grundlagen und Bausteine gelegt und die zentrale Aufgabe einer strukturellen demographischen Gewichtung mit einem Hochrechnungs–/Kalibrierungsansatz auf informationstheoretischer Basis gelöst.Vor dem Hintergrund der Wirtschaftsrechnungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes (Lfd. Wirtschaftsrechnungen und EVS) wird darauf aufbauend ein konkretes Konzept für die Kumulation von jährlichen Haushaltsbudgetbefragungen vorgeschlagen. Damit kann das Ziel einer Kumulation von Querschnitten mit einer umfassenderen Kumulationsstichprobe für tief gegliederte Analysen erreicht werden. Folgen sollen die Simulationsrechnungen zur Evaluation des Konzepts.

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Summary: In this study a concept for cumulating periodic household surveys within the frame of the project Official Statistics and Socio–Economic Questions is developed and asks for discussion. We develop the theoretical background and solve the central task of a structural demographic weighting/calibration based on an information theoretical approach.Based on the household budget surveys of the Federal Statistical Office (Periodic Household Budget Surveys and Income and Consumption Sample (EVS)) a practical concept is proposed to cumulate yearly household surveys. This allows a cumulation of cross–sections by a comprehensive cumulated sample for deeply structured analyses. In a following study this concept shall be evaluated.

     

Modified Wald statistics for generalized linear models

Summary: Wald statistics in generalized linear models are asymptotically ² distributed. The asymptotic chi–squared law of the corresponding quadratic form shows disadvantages with respect to the approximation of the finite–sample distribution. It is shown by means of a comprehensive simulation study that improvements can be achieved by applying simple finite–sample size approximations to the distribution of the quadratic form in generalized linear models. These approximations are based on a ² distribution with an estimated degree of freedom that generalizes an approach by Patnaik and Pearson. Simulation studies confirm that nominal level is maintained with higher accuracy compared to the Wald statistics.     

Bayesian Estimation of Survival Functions under Stochastic Precedence

When estimating the distributions of two random variables, X and Y, investigators often have prior information that Y tends to be bigger than X. To formalize this prior belief, one could potentially assume stochastic ordering between X and Y, which implies Pr(X < or = z) > or = Pr(Y < or = z) for all z in the domain of X and Y. Stochastic ordering is quite restrictive, though, and this article focuses instead on Bayesian estimation of the distribution functions of X and Y under the weaker stochastic precedence constraint, Pr(X < or = Y) > or = 0.5. We consider the case where both X and Y are categorical variables with common support and develop a Gibbs sampling algorithm for posterior computation. The method is then generalized to the case where X and Y are survival times. The proposed approach is illustrated using data on survival after tumor removal for patients with malignant melanoma.     

对高校预算管理制度改革的探讨

《预算法》颁布之后,在高校推行了新的预算管理方法,对高校教育事业的发展产生了一定的影响,同时也暴露了一些问题。为了进一步推动高校预算制度的改革,需要不断提高执行和运用《预算法》的能力,同时深入探讨解决这些问题的方法与途径。     

交通事业单位预算管理方式研究

针对我国交通事业单位在预算编制目标、预算编制方式中存在的问题,通过对国外预算编制方式的比较,就我国交通事业单位预算管理在预算编制目标确定、预算控制组织构建、预算控制方式和预算管理方法等方面提出了建设性的意见,以加强交通事业单位预算管理。     

中、美政府会计比较

"政府与非营利组织会计"是预算会计改革方向。通过中、美政府会计概念、特点、体系、准则、制度、要素、报告、基金等比较,研究中国政府会计与美国政府会计的异同,分析各自的优势,可以更好地认识中国政府会计的理论与实务的发展。     

软预算约束与国企改革：从要素投入的视角分析

论文运用动态模型对软预算约束的形成路径进行了理论研究,并对中国国有企业改革的路径选择进行实证研究。研究结果表明软预算约束起源于企业要素投入与生产模式的匹配模式,而中国国有企业改革路径选择的结果是使要素投入和生产模式满足弱匹配条件。     

Progressive Learning

We study a dynamic principal–agent relationship with adverse selection and limited commitment. We show that when the relationship is subject to productivity shocks, the principal may be able to improve her value over time by progressively learning the agent's private information. She may even achieve her first‐best payoff in the long run. The relationship may also exhibit path dependence, with early shocks determining the principal's long‐run value. These findings contrast sharply with the results of the ratchet effect literature, in which the principal persistently obtains low payoffs, giving up substantial informational rents to the agent.     

发达国家议会预算监督的制度化实践及对我国人大的启示

公共预算是政府的血液和民主政治的核心，随着公众预算民主意识的觉醒．肩负公众受托责任的人大如何确保行政预算向公众负责是我国当前预算民主治理面临的重大挑战之一。以回应纳税人预算民主诉求为起源的发达国家议会预算监督经过多年的发展已为这一问题的解决树立了典范，把民主责任作为制度设计的起点、在完政层面进行预算权的民主化配置和操作层面控制技术及辅助资源的提升是其主要特征。以发达国家预算监督制度折射出的民主责任逻辑反观我国目前的实践，理念的更新、预算权的均衡化配置、中期财政预算控制的加强、多元监督合力的发挥等制度要素对于增强人大预算监督责任尤为关键。